Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
